Cars will be banned from cities across Europe under a radical European Commission plan to cut emissions by over the next 40 years. The long-awaited proposals on a ‘single European transport area’ aims at enforcing "a profound shift in transport patterns for passengers" by 2050, including rules that over half all journeys above 300km should be by rail. But: can these goals be met?

It was as bold a pronouncement as any from Brussels: on March 28, Siim Kallas, the EU Transport Commissioner, declared that directives and new taxation of fuel would be used to force people out of their petrol and diesel-driven cars and onto "alternative" means of transport by 2050. "That means no more conventionally fuelled cars in our city centres," he said. "Action will follow, legislation, real action to change behaviour."

The proposals are aimed at slashing Europe’s slash dependence on oil and other fossil fuels, and tackling climate change. The sweeping transport plan - to be put to EU governments - insists that phasing out "conventionally fuelled" cars is not an assault on personal mobility. Coupled with proposals and targets covering road, rail and air travel, Kallas says the transformation of the European transport system can boost mobility and cut congestion and emissions. "The widely held belief that you need to cut mobility to fight climate change is simply not true,” he said.

The 'Transport 2050' strategy aims to cut the EU's carbon emissions by 60% and create a 'Single European Transport Area' with fully integrated transportation networks. Kallas said his vision included "close to zero fatalities" on Europe's roads, and "zero" cars fuelled by diesel or petrol in cities. The car phase-out would be in two stages, with half of conventionally-fuelled cars to be removed by 2030, then fully by 2050. He said alternatives would be promoted, to shift people to electric cars, hydrogen cars, hybrid cars, public transport, and to walking or cycling in cities. "We can break the transport system's dependence on oil without sacrificing its efficiency and compromising mobility," Kallas said. "It can be win-win."

Under the plan, half of all intercity passenger and freight transport would be by rail or waterways. Other key targets are for 40% use of sustainable low carbon fuels in aviation and a cut in shipping emissions of at least 40%. The document says that by 2050 the majority of medium-distance passenger journeys - those above about 300km - should be by rail. By then, the European high-speed rail network would be completed (the length of the existing high-speed network would already be tripled by 2030), and all main EU airports would be connected to the rail network, preferably high-speed.

More than half of road freight travelling more than 300km should move to rail or boat (30% by 2030). For longer-distance travel, and intercontinental freight, air and sea travel will benefit from "new engines, fuels and traffic management systems, which will increase efficiency and reduce emissions", says the document. Part of the endeavor, it said, is that by 2050 Europe should "move close to zero fatalities in road transport", with an interim target of halving all road casualties by 2020.

The strategy runs long and covers almost every aspect of transport. Among the other issues worth highlighting are plans:

• To proceed with the internalisation of external costs in other transport modes;

• To apply the principle of earmarking revenues collected from transport users for the development of an integrated and efficient network;

• To progressively allow for European electronic tolling systems

• To boost research through an EU Strategic Transport Technology Plan, to be announced this year;

• To apply the ‘user pays’ and ‘polluter pays’ principles more;

• To introduce EU-wide deployment strategies and the right market conditions to facilitate the take-up of new cleaner vehicles in cities.

But can this really be achieved? Kallas defended the plans as "realistic," despite the projected huge cost. "We are talking about the necessity of investment of €1.5 trillion," he said. He admitted the big problem would be making the targets binding, as the plans are not currently reinforced in legislation. Acknowledging that public resources will be increasingly limited, Kallas said there would have to be further involvement of the private sector. "It's a huge challenge," he said.

But Kallas insisted that the challenges facing Europe gave policy makers little choice. The EU spends around €210 billion a year on importing oil, a commodity that will become scarcer in future decades, sourced increasingly from unstable parts of the world. Oil prices are projected to more than double between 2005 levels and 2050 (59 $/barrel in 2005), and current events in the Arab world show the extreme volatility of oil prices. And while transport has become more energy-efficient, it still depends on oil for 96% of its energy needs. At the same time, the Commission estimates that European air transport will more than double by 2050.

The entire project, Kallas said, aimed to strike a difficult balance. "Freedom to travel is a basic right for our citizens, and is critical to the development of Europe's business sector," he said. “We all take transport for granted, when we travel to work, when we go away on holidays, or for the millions of businesses that fuel the economy and trade in goods and services from the four corners of the world. Curbing mobility is not an option. Nor is business as usual.”